Inflation, Unemployment and NAIRU Estimate in Indonesia: Phillips Curve Approach

Inflation/Unemployment Regimes and the Instability of the Phillips Curve

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the timings of the transitions between ...

A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve

In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved components model for inflation and unemployment. The unobserved components are trend inflation and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Our model also incorporates a time-varying Phillips curve and time-varying inflation persistence. What sets this paper apart from the existing literature is that we do not use unbounded ra...

The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New estimates for Germany

This paper provides new estimates of a time–varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by German unification using two alternative estimators, the Kalman Filter and the partially linear model. Estimating a standard Phillips curve, the sum of coefficients associated with expected inflation is far below unity, whatever measure of expected inflation rates is employed. ...

Inflation , Unemployment and the NAIRU in Pakistan ( 1975 - 2009 )

The Phillips Curve and Underlying Inflation

This paper examines methods of controlling the supply shock in the estimation of the Phillips curve and discusses the relationship between the supply shock and inflation inertia. The empirical results clearly show that controlling the supply shock effect, not only for current inflation but also for lagged inflation using the asymmetry of the price change distribution, substantially outperforms ...